Sunday, December 21, 2008

Technosanity #20: World Energy Outlook 2008

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The World Energy Outlook is a yearly publication from the International Energy Agency giving the official projection of the future energy outlook. They just released the 2008 report and there are a couple slide decks available giving some hints of what is contained in the report.

WEO 2008 Presentation at COP 14 Side Event

Launch of World Energy Outlook 2008

World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's "unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise.

Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030

World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to fill the demand?

97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory,
even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero

These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.
World primary energy demand in the reference scenario - they say it's "unsustainable" without explaining why. World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030, a very rapid rise, an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year, with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise.

Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030

World oil production by source is very scary. The IEA figures show a decline in crude oil production from the currently producing fields begining in 2008. er.. That decline has already begun? There is a growing gap in production of the currently producing fields and their claimed future oil production. What makes up that gap is crude oil from fields that are yet to be developed, and this includes use of enhanced oil recovery techniques. They further explain that 64 million barrels per day of capacity needs to be installed between 2007 and 2030, which is six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. From where will the money come to pay for this infrastructure even if the oil is there to fill the demand?

97% of the projected increase in emissions between now & 2030 comes from non-OECD countries –three-quarters from China, India & the Middle East alone

OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto a 450-ppm trajectory,
even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero

These last two slides show that the problem is coming from the developing countries, primarily China and India. They are of course where the hugest quantity of industrialization is occuring.

Current energy trends are patently unsustainable —socially, environmentally, economically

Oil will remain the leading energy source but...

-- The era of cheap oil is over, although price volatility will remain

-- Oilfield decline is the keydeterminant of investment needs

-- The oil market is undergoing major and lasting structural change, with national companies in the ascendancy

To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate change we need a major decarbonisation of the world’s energy system

-- Copenhagen must deliver a credible post-2012 climate regime
-- Limiting temperature rise to 2°C will require significant emission reductions in allregions & technological breakthroughs
-- Mitigating climate change will substantially improve energy security

The present economic worries do not excuse back-tracking or delays in taking action to address energy challenges

Technosanity #20: World Energy Outlook 2008


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