Friday, June 13, 2008

Predicting the timing of peak oil

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M. King Hubbert, who devised the peak theory, correctly predicted in 1956 that oil production would peak in the United States between 1965 and 1970[1]. Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak at "about half a century" from publication and approximately 12 gigabarrels (GB) a year in magnitude, though he revised this estimate in 1974 to 40-Gb/yr in 1995.[2] "if current trends continue". In a 1976 TV interview Hubbert added that the actions of OPEC might flatten the global production curve but this would only delay the peak for perhaps 10 years[3].

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