Friday, June 13, 2008

Predicting the timing of peak oil


M. King Hubbert, who devised the peak theory, correctly predicted in 1956 that oil production would peak in the United States between 1965 and 1970[1]. Hubbert further predicted a worldwide peak at "about half a century" from publication and approximately 12 gigabarrels (GB) a year in magnitude, though he revised this estimate in 1974 to 40-Gb/yr in 1995.[2] "if current trends continue". In a 1976 TV interview Hubbert added that the actions of OPEC might flatten the global production curve but this would only delay the peak for perhaps 10 years[3].