Friday, June 13, 2008

Hubbert curve


The Hubbert curve projects the rate of oil production over time, and is the main component of Hubbert peak theory. It was first proposed by geophysicist M. King Hubbert in the mid 1950s during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company, and has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources, as well a prominence in peak oil discussions.

Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to accurately predict that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970.